Sean Daily

This is an English version of our Korean article, based on public information as of October 4, 2026. Please check the official sources below for the latest details.

Read the original Korean article

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When Is the October Rate Meeting?

The 2026 schedule of monetary policy meetings on the Bank of Korea website lists the remaining meetings this year as Thursday, October 22 and Thursday, November 26. The base rate is decided at these meetings, and right after the decision the Bank of Korea publishes its monetary policy decision statement.

The statement is more than a rate figure. It also contains sentences on how the Bank of Korea sees the economy and inflation and how it plans to run rates going forward, so the market reads the wording closely.

For reference, the Bank of Korea releases a new economic outlook at the November meeting. According to Bank of Korea materials, its economic outlook and Board members’ rate projections are presented four times a year, in February, May, August and November. That is why some say the November meeting could be an important turning point in this tightening cycle.

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Where Is the Base Rate Now?

On August 27, 2026, the Bank of Korea’s Monetary Policy Board raised the base rate by 0.25%p, from 2.75% to 3.00%. It was the second straight monthly hike, following July, when the Bank began tightening. Six members voted in favor, while Board member Hwang Geon-il (황건일) submitted a minority opinion that keeping the rate at 2.75% would be preferable.

The Bank of Korea pointed to two reasons for the hike. Growth is stronger than expected thanks to strong semiconductor exports and a recovery in domestic demand, and inflation looks likely to stay above the target level (2%) for a considerable period. It explained that it is important to respond preemptively before price increases spread.

Item	May forecast	August forecast
GDP growth, this year	2.6%	3.3%
GDP growth, next year	2.1%	2.9%
Consumer price inflation, this year	2.7%	2.7%
Consumer price inflation, next year	2.3%	2.3%

The sharp upward revision to the growth forecast stands out. The inflation forecast was unchanged, but the Bank of Korea saw that stronger growth could increase demand-side pressure on prices.

The Board’s six-month-ahead conditional rate outlook was also released, in which each of the 7 Board members places 3 dots. Of the 21 dots, 6 were at 3.50%, 10 at 3.25% and 5 at 3.00%. Since 16 dots sit above the current rate of 3.00%, this is read as leaving the door open to further hikes. Keep in mind, though, that these dots are not a fixed plan but each member’s conditional projection.

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Factors to Watch for the October Decision

The first is inflation. According to Korea’s data and statistics agency (국가데이터처), consumer prices in September were up 2.9% from a year earlier, lower than August (3.1%). But the Bank of Korea expected October inflation to stay high at around 3%. The government estimated that without the oil price cap, September inflation would have been 3.5%.

The second is household loans and home prices. The August decision statement also included a line saying that continued attention is needed on rising home prices in the Seoul metropolitan area and growth in household debt. That is why financial stability is mentioned alongside the reasons for raising rates.

The third is US interest rates and the exchange rate. The US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate to 3.75–4.00% on September 16. Compared with Korea’s base rate of 3.00%, the gap is 1.00%p at the upper end. A wider rate gap can put downward pressure on the won, and the Bank of Korea said it would review how the Fed’s moves affect domestic markets.

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How Does the Market See It?

Views differ, but the broad picture is similar. In a September 17 article, Financial News (파이낸셜뉴스) reported that the market sees a further hike this year as a question of timing, with the mood favoring November over October. The Korea Economic Daily (한국경제) reported in an October 2 article that some observers expect any further hike to be decided after watching the effects of the consecutive July and August hikes.

On the other hand, some people raise the possibility of a third straight hike, because when long-term US rates rise, Korean rates tend to move in the same direction. In the end, nobody can be sure about the October 22 result, and expectations may change with inflation, exchange rate and US data released right up to the meeting.

One thing to note is the order of events. The Bank of Korea’s Board meeting (October 22) comes before the US FOMC (October 27–28). According to Global Economic (글로벌이코노믹), citing Reuters, US job growth in September was only 29,000, a sharp slowdown from expectations, which weakened expectations of a further Fed hike in October. How Bank of Korea Board members take such signals from the US is also something to watch.

Date	Event	Note
Aug 27, 2026	Base rate raised from 2.75% to 3.00%	6 in favor, 1 for holding
Oct 22, 2026	Monetary policy meeting	Scheduled
Nov 26, 2026	Monetary policy meeting, economic outlook update	Scheduled

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How It Affects Your Daily Life

The base rate feeds into loan and deposit rates with a time lag. Many variable-rate loans are structured so that when an indicator such as COFIX rises, it shows up in your interest several weeks to several months later. According to Money Today (머니투데이), as of September 15 the variable-rate mortgage rates at the five major banks were 4.25–6.46% per year, with the lower end up 0.23%p from two months earlier.

You can get a feel for the interest burden with a simple calculation. If your loan balance is KRW 300 million and the rate rises by 0.25%p, your annual interest increases by about KRW 750,000. In practice it varies with each bank’s spread, the loan product and when the change takes effect, so please use this only for a rough idea.

Loan demand is also being affected. According to Money Today, household loan balances at the five major banks as of September 14 were about KRW 781.8 trillion, slightly lower than at the end of August. The interpretation is that rising rates and tighter bank lending controls are holding down demand.

Deposits often move the other way. Money Today reported that large banks raised their time deposit rates by roughly 0.1–0.6%p in September. However, the differences between banks and products are large, so it is a good idea to compare them before signing up, using the Financial Supervisory Service’s Finlife (금융상품한눈에) or the Korea Federation of Banks Consumer Portal.

There are three things to check now: whether your loan is variable-rate or fixed-rate, when your next rate reset date is, and how much of a monthly repayment you could afford if rates rise. Refinancing requires weighing early repayment fees and loan limit regulations, so it is safest to confirm by talking with your bank.

In short, the October 22 decision is open to both a hike and a hold. Either way, what matters is to check your loan’s rate structure and repayment capacity in advance so the result does not catch you off guard. After the decision, also check the forward-looking rate wording in the Bank of Korea’s statement.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Q. Where can I check the October decision?

The Bank of Korea website’s page for monetary policy meeting schedules and materials has the decision statement and the press conference materials. Major news outlets also report it as breaking news right after the decision.

Q. If the base rate rises, does my loan interest rise right away?

In many cases it does not rise right away. Variable-rate loans are linked to indicators such as COFIX or financial bond yields and are adjusted on a reset cycle (for example, every 6 months). You can find your loan’s benchmark indicator and reset cycle in your loan agreement or your bank’s app.

Q. If rates are not raised in October, are the hikes over?

You cannot conclude that. The August decision statement said the timing and pace of any further hikes would be decided while reviewing inflation, economic trends and financial stability. It is also worth noting that the November 26 meeting is still ahead.

Q. Do deposit rates rise along with the base rate?

They often move in the same direction, but the size differs from bank to bank. Market rates and each bank’s funding situation both play a part, so deposit rate increases are not the same as the base rate increase.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product or to invest. Please make investment and financial decisions at your own judgment and responsibility. Eligibility for many Korean programs depends on residency or registration status in Korea, so please confirm on the official site.