Sean Daily

Updated: October 14, 2026 (Europe time). Based on ASML’s third-quarter 2026 results release, furnished to the SEC on Form 6-K on October 14, plus earnings-call coverage and earlier ASML releases. Check the official filing in the Sources box for full tables.

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ASML Q3 2026 earnings: the numbers at a glance

ASML’s Q3 2026 earnings landed on Wednesday, October 14, and the short version is that the world’s only maker of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines just had the biggest quarter in its history. Net sales came to €11.7 billion and net income to €5.0 billion, according to the company’s release.

If you follow AI stocks, you have probably heard ASML described as a bottleneck. This quarter it said so itself: demand for its machines is running ahead of what it can build, and not just this year.

Here is how the quarter compares with the same period a year earlier, using ASML’s own figures.

Metric	Q3 2026	Q3 2025	Change
Total net sales	€11.66B	€7.52B	+55%
Gross margin	57.5%	51.6%	+5.9 pts
Net income	€4.96B	€2.13B	About 2.3x
EPS (basic)	€12.95	€5.49	About 2.4x
Installed Base Management sales	€3.29B	—	—

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The 2026 outlook, raised again

The headline number for investors is the full-year forecast. ASML now expects 2026 total net sales of €44 billion to €45 billion and a gross margin of about 56%. Startup Fortune counts this as the third upgrade of the year.

The path is worth seeing in one place, because it shows how far the company’s own view has moved in nine months.

When	2026 sales outlook	2026 gross margin outlook
January 28 (Q4 2025 results)	€34B–€39B	—
Before July 15 (prior range)	€36B–€40B	51%–53%
July 15 (Q2 2026 results)	€43B–€45B	54%–56%
October 14 (Q3 2026 results)	€44B–€45B	About 56%

For the fourth quarter alone, ASML guided to €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion in sales, a gross margin around 57%, R&D costs of about €1.2 billion and SG&A of about €0.4 billion. Notice that the new full-year range is narrow. With one quarter left, the company is mostly confirming a number rather than promising one.

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Why supply, not demand, is now the story

The most quoted line from the release is Fouquet’s warning that “our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers.” ASML had already announced a 30% capacity increase for 2028. It now says it is “investigating ways to increase capacity for 2028 beyond” that, and some customers want to talk about orders for 2029 and 2030.

On the call, CFO Roger Dassen said EUV sales should grow “over 45%” in 2026, according to BigGo Finance’s call summary, which also reports that ASML expects to ship about 65 EUV systems this year. The same summary says TSMC and Samsung have set timelines for High-NA EUV, ASML’s newest generation, in volume manufacturing; Fouquet said those milestones “validate the High NA program.”

Why does any of this matter beyond the Netherlands? As Startup Fortune notes, ASML is the only maker of the EUV machines TSMC, Samsung and Intel need for their most advanced chips. When ASML says it is sold out for years, it is telling you how long chipmakers expect the AI build-out to last.

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The fine print: one-off gains, upgrades and China

Not all of the record is new machines. Three details change how you might read it.

• A one-time boost to profit. BigGo’s summary says the €5.0 billion net income includes a roughly €500 million gain from revaluing ASML’s stake in AI firm Mistral. Strip that out and profit is still about €4.5 billion, well above last year, but the headline flatters the run rate.
• Upgrades beat expectations. Installed Base Management, ASML’s service and upgrade business, brought in €3.3 billion. Dassen said that was “€400 million more than we guided” and credited it for the whole gross-margin beat. Customers squeezing more output from existing machines is another sign that new tools are hard to get.
• China is shrinking as a share. ASML expects China to be about 20% of sales in 2026, per BigGo’s call notes, down from about a third of system sales in 2025 according to Fintool. Fintool attributes the earlier decline partly to US export restrictions and partly to a post-pandemic backlog running down.

There is also a disclosure change to keep in mind. ASML stopped reporting quarterly bookings after its January report, Fintool noted at the time, so this release has no order figure to compare. Commentary about capacity now does the job bookings used to do.

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How the market took it

A record quarter does not guarantee a rising stock. Startup Fortune, citing Investing.com, reported that ASML shares fell after the release even though results topped estimates. When guidance has already been raised twice, investors tend to ask whether the good news was priced in.

The wider debate is about AI spending itself. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan said on October 12 that many AI funders “have no clue what they are investing in,” as Startup Fortune reports, arguing that access to capital may become the real limit. ASML’s multi-year customer commitments look firmer than short-term cloud contracts, but they still depend on chipmakers’ customers continuing to spend.

Shareholders do get cash in the meantime. ASML bought back about €4.1 billion of stock in the quarter under its 2026–2028 program and declared an interim dividend of €1.88 a share, payable November 4, 2026.

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What this means for you

You don’t have to own ASML for this report to matter. If you hold a broad index or a tech fund, chip-equipment makers are part of what you own, and their outlook feeds the AI story driving much of the market. A few trade-offs to weigh:

• Visibility vs. valuation. ASML is telling you demand is visible into 2028. The share drop suggests a strong outlook can already be in the price. Clear demand and an attractive entry point are two separate questions.
• Concentration vs. diversification. If your portfolio already leans heavily on AI names, adding another one adds to the same bet. A broad fund spreads that risk but also dilutes the upside.
• Headline profit vs. underlying profit. The Mistral gain won’t repeat every quarter. When you compare ASML’s next results, the €4.5 billion figure may be the fairer base.

Two things are still open. TSMC, one of the chipmakers that relies on ASML’s EUV tools, reports on October 15, and its spending plans will either back up or undercut the “sold out” message. And ASML has not put a number on 2027 sales yet, so its next report is where to look for one. Which of those signals you weight more is your call.

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Frequently asked questions

Q: What were ASML’s Q3 2026 sales and profit?

Total net sales were €11.7 billion (€11,662 million) and net income was €5.0 billion (€4,960 million), with basic EPS of €12.95 and a 57.5% gross margin.

Q: What is ASML’s 2026 sales guidance now?

€44 billion to €45 billion for the full year, with a gross margin around 56%. Fourth-quarter guidance is €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion.

Q: Did ASML report bookings this quarter?

No. The company stopped disclosing quarterly bookings after its Q4 2025 report in January 2026.

Q: When is the ASML interim dividend paid?

The 2026 interim dividend of €1.88 per ordinary share is payable on November 4, 2026, according to the release.

This article is general information, not financial advice. Figures come from company releases and news reports and may be revised; check ASML’s official filings and consult a qualified professional before making investment decisions.