Sean Daily

Updated: October 17, 2026. Based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s advance retail sales report of October 15, 2026, and coverage from that day. These are advance estimates and can be revised; check the official sources below.

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US retail sales September 2026: the numbers

If you are trying to work out whether Americans are still spending, the US retail sales report for September 2026 gives you two very different answers. The Census Bureau’s advance estimate put total retail and food services sales at $745.0 billion, up 0.8% from August and 6.3% from September 2025. That is well above the 0.3% gain economists surveyed by FactSet had expected, the AP reported.

August was also stronger than first thought. The Census Bureau revised the July-to-August gain to 1.3% from 1.1%. Kitco News noted that sales excluding motor vehicles rose 0.9% in September, and the Census tables confirm that figure, with that slice at $605.2 billion.

Now look at the line that strips out fuel. Sales excluding gasoline stations rose 0.2%. Excluding both autos and gasoline, they also rose 0.2%. The narrower control group, which leaves out food services, auto dealers, building materials and gas stations, edged up 0.1% after a 1.2% gain in August, according to Sharecast. The Seoul Economic Daily reported that markets had expected 0.3% for that core measure.

Category	Sept. 2026 sales ($ billions)	Change from August	Change from Sept. 2025
Total retail and food services	745.0	+0.8%	+6.3%
Gasoline stations	68.0	+6.4%	+28.1%
Total excluding gasoline stations	677.0	+0.2%	+4.5%
Excluding motor vehicles & parts	605.2	+0.9%	+7.2%
Motor vehicle & parts dealers	139.8	+0.2%	+2.5%
Food services & drinking places	92.9	+1.1%	+7.0%
Nonstore (online) retailers	124.3	+0.3%	+8.2%
Furniture & home furnishings	10.7	+1.3%	+4.9%
Grocery stores	77.2	+0.5%	+0.9%
Building materials & garden	44.1	−0.6%	+4.5%
Miscellaneous store retailers	15.8	−3.0%	+10.9%

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Gasoline did most of the lifting

Sales at gas stations rose 6.4% in a single month to $68.0 billion and are 28.1% higher than a year ago. Working from the Census figures, that roughly $4 billion monthly gain accounts for most of the $5.7 billion rise in total sales. Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, told the AP the jump was “almost entirely due to rising gasoline prices.”

The pump price explains why. AAA put the national average for regular at $4.33 a gallon on October 15, and the AP noted it was under $3 before the war with Iran began. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a day earlier that the gasoline index rose 9.1% in September and 34.2% over the year. So when station receipts climb 28.1% while pump prices climb faster, the extra dollars are paying for price, not for more gallons.

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The side story: restaurants up, garden centers down

Not every category followed fuel. Restaurants and bars, the main services category in the report, rose 1.1%. Furniture stores gained 1.3% and electronics and appliance stores 0.6%. Clothing was flat. Online retailers grew 0.3%, a slow month for a channel that is still up 8.2% from a year ago.

On the other side, miscellaneous store retailers fell 3.0%, building materials and garden stores slipped 0.6%, sporting goods and hobby stores dropped 0.5%, and general merchandise edged down 0.1%. Grocery stores rose 0.5% in September, but they are only 0.9% above last year in dollars, a thin gain in a year when prices overall are up 3.7%.

Natalie Kotlyar, who leads BDO’s retail and consumer products practice, told the AP that “part of this gain is simply higher prices” and that many shoppers are leaning on savings and promotions.

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Why the Fed is watching this report

Here is the background that makes September’s numbers matter. On September 16 the Federal Open Market Committee voted 12–0 to raise its target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike since 2023, saying “inflation remains elevated.” The BLS then reported September CPI up 3.7% from a year earlier, from 3.4% in August. And according to the AP, employers added only 29,000 jobs in September.

Retail sales sit awkwardly between those reports. A strong headline argues that demand can absorb another hike. A soft control group argues that households are already stretched. According to CME FedWatch data cited by the Seoul Economic Daily, the implied chance of a hike at the October 27–28 meeting slipped to 28.2% from 33.2% after the release, while the chance of a hike by year-end rose to 92.8%. The same outlet reported that San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Reuters further adjustment was more likely than not, with timing still under discussion. Those are market odds and one official’s view, not a decision.

Pearce expects consumer spending to grow at a 3.3% annualized pace in the third quarter but to lose momentum into the holidays. Whether that happens is something the October report, due November 17, will start to show.

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What this means for you

You can’t change the macro numbers, but you can choose where you take risk. Each option below has a real cost:

• Fuel versus everything else: If driving is a big part of your budget, cutting trips frees cash for other spending. The trade-off is time and convenience, and AAA prices can move quickly in either direction.
• Holiday shopping timing: BDO’s Kotlyar expects shoppers to lean on promotions. Waiting for November and December deals can save money, but buying early locks in what you need before any further price increases.
• Variable-rate debt: If the Fed hikes again this year, credit card and home equity rates would likely follow. Paying them down reduces that exposure but leaves you with a thinner emergency cushion.
• Savings: Higher rates support yields on savings accounts and CDs. A CD fixes today’s rate; a flexible account lets you capture another hike, at the risk that it never comes.

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Frequently asked questions

Q: How much did US retail sales rise in September 2026?

Retail and food services sales rose 0.8% from August to $745.0 billion, according to the Census Bureau’s advance estimate released October 15, 2026. Sales were up 6.3% from September 2025.

Q: How much of the gain came from gasoline?

Gas station sales rose 6.4%. Excluding gasoline stations, total sales rose 0.2%, so fuel accounted for most of the headline increase.

Q: Are retail sales adjusted for inflation?

No. The Census Bureau adjusts for seasonal patterns but not for price changes, so a rise can reflect higher prices rather than more items bought. The report also excludes most services, such as travel and hotel stays.

Q: When is the next retail sales report?

The Census Bureau lists November 17, 2026, as the release date for October’s advance retail sales.

This article is general information, not financial advice. Advance estimates are revised, and market odds change quickly, so check the official sources or consult a qualified professional before making decisions.