Sean Daily

Updated: October 15, 2026 (Taiwan time). Based on TSMC’s third-quarter 2026 results, furnished to the SEC on Form 6-K on October 15, plus earnings-call transcripts and Reuters reporting. The figures are unaudited and, per the filing, not yet approved by TSMC’s board.

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TSMC Q3 2026 earnings: the numbers at a glance

Start with the figure TSMC can’t round away: NT$763.06 billion in net income for the July–September quarter. That’s the result in the company’s Q3 2026 earnings release on Thursday, October 15, and Quartz, citing CNBC, counts it as the sixth record quarter in a row.

Revenue came to NT$1,494.24 billion, or US$46.72 billion. In US dollars that’s up 41.2% from a year earlier and 16.2% from the second quarter. Measured in Taiwan dollars, revenue rose 50.9%.

Metric	Q3 2026	Change vs. Q3 2025	Change vs. Q2 2026
Revenue (NT$)	NT$1,494.24B	+50.9%	+17.6%
Revenue (US$)	US$46.72B	+41.2%	+16.2%
Net income	NT$763.06B	+68.7%	+8.0%
Diluted EPS	NT$29.43 (US$4.60 per ADR)	+68.7%	—
Gross margin	66.4%	—	—
Operating margin	58.7%	—	—
Net profit margin	51.1%	—	—

Did it beat? Yes, on both lines. Investing.com put the consensus at US$4.42 per ADR and US$45.41 billion in revenue. A week earlier, Reuters reported that analysts in an LSEG SmartEstimate expected net profit of about NT$740.8 billion. TSMC’s own July forecast had been US$44.6 billion to US$45.8 billion, so revenue also cleared the top of its range.

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Where the money came from: nodes and platforms

TSMC sorts its revenue two ways: by manufacturing node (how small the transistors are) and by platform (what the chips end up in). Both views point the same direction.

By node (share of wafer revenue)	Q3 2026	By platform (share of revenue)	Q3 2026 / QoQ
2nm	8%	High-performance computing (HPC)	68% / +22%
3nm	33%	Smartphone	21% / +10%
5nm	28%	Internet of Things	4% / +5%
7nm	10%	Automotive	4% / +23%
7nm and below, total	79%	Digital consumer electronics	1% / -12%

HPC is the bucket that holds AI accelerators and data-center processors, and at 68% it is now more than three times the size of smartphones. The 2nm figure matters too. That node entered high-volume manufacturing in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to management, and within a year it is already 8% of wafer revenue.

Not everything grew, though. Digital consumer electronics shrank 12% from the prior quarter. On the call, management also flagged caution about 2027 demand from consumer and price-sensitive markets, per Investing.com’s transcript. The AI boom and the rest of the chip market are not moving in lockstep.

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Q4 guidance and the 44% full-year outlook

For October through December, TSMC guided to revenue of US$52.3 billion to US$54.3 billion, a gross margin of 65% to 67% and an operating margin of 56.5% to 58.5%, assuming US$1 = NT$31.8. The midpoint, US$53.3 billion, would be roughly 14% above the third quarter (our calculation).

Wei told analysts the company now expects 2026 revenue to grow about 44% in US dollar terms, higher than it had expected before. On AI demand, he was blunt: “The demand is extremely robust. We did not see any sign of slowdown,” according to Investing.com’s transcript.

TSMC has guided to a mid-to-high 50s percent compound annual growth rate in AI accelerator revenue for 2024 to 2029. Wei said the rate “probably will be higher,” but he did not put a new number on it. That is a hint, not a forecast, and it is worth reading that way.

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Capex, overseas fabs and the margin trade-off

CFO Wendell Huang kept 2026 capital spending at US$60 billion to US$64 billion and said spending for 2026 to 2028 will be significantly higher than in the previous three years. He gave no figure for 2027 or 2028. His framing: “if [we] do our job right, the increase in revenue will outpace the increase in CapEx.”

Some of that money goes abroad, and abroad costs more. Huang said dilution to gross margin from overseas fabs is expected to widen to 3% to 4% in the later years of the company’s five-year window. Meanwhile, the second Arizona fab is now expected to start volume production in the third quarter of 2027, slightly ahead of plan. A second fab in Japan is slated for 3nm production in 2028.

Further out, management said annual capacity for the 2nm family should more than double in 2027, and the A14 node is on track for risk production in 2027 and volume production in 2028. Wei also listed limits that no single company controls: power, advanced packaging, high-bandwidth memory and networking chips.

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Why the stock slipped anyway

Investing.com reported that TSMC’s US-listed shares closed down 3.4% at US$430 on the day of the results and fell further after hours. Before the report, Reuters noted that the Taipei shares were up about 65% for the year, giving the company a market value of roughly US$2.1 trillion.

A big run-up sets a high bar. Add capex that will stay heavy through 2028, the 2nm ramp and overseas fabs both weighing on margins, and softer consumer demand, and you get a report that was strong without being a surprise. Two days earlier, ASML told a similar story: record results, a sold-out outlook, and a lower share price.

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What this means for you

Even if you’ve never bought a TSMC share, an S&P 500 fund or a global tech ETF probably gives you exposure, either directly or through the companies it makes chips for, such as Nvidia and Apple. Here are the trade-offs to keep in mind:

• Growth vs. price already paid. Revenue guidance points higher again, but after a roughly 65% gain this year, strong results did not lift the stock. A good company and a good entry point are separate questions.
• AI exposure vs. concentration. With HPC at 68% of revenue, TSMC is now largely an AI bet. If your portfolio already leans on Nvidia or the big cloud companies, adding TSMC deepens the same bet more than it spreads it.
• Today’s margins vs. tomorrow’s costs. The 66.4% gross margin is exceptional, but management itself is warning about dilution from 2nm and overseas fabs. Next year’s margin may be the more realistic baseline to watch.

One thing is still unknown: TSMC hasn’t given a 2027 revenue or capex number. Its January report is where you’d expect to see one, and the consumer-demand warning is the line to watch until then.

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Frequently asked questions

Q: How much did TSMC earn in Q3 2026?

Net income was NT$763.06 billion, up 68.7% year over year, on revenue of NT$1,494.24 billion (US$46.72 billion). Diluted EPS was NT$29.43, or US$4.60 per ADR unit.

Q: What is TSMC’s Q4 2026 guidance?

Revenue of US$52.3 billion to US$54.3 billion, gross margin of 65% to 67% and operating margin of 56.5% to 58.5%, based on an exchange rate of US$1 = NT$31.8.

Q: How much of TSMC’s revenue comes from 2nm chips?

2nm made up 8% of wafer revenue in Q3 2026. 3nm was 33% and 5nm was 28%.

Q: What is TSMC’s 2026 capex budget?

US$60 billion to US$64 billion, unchanged from the prior guidance, according to CFO Wendell Huang on the earnings call.

This article is general information, not financial advice. Figures come from company releases and news reports, are unaudited, and may be revised; check TSMC’s official filings and consult a qualified professional before making investment decisions.